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DTN Closing Grain Comments    08/16 14:02

   Corn Rebounds to Finish Week 

   After a week of lower trading, pressured by USDA's higher corn crop estimate 
Monday, December corn finished up 9 3/4 cents Friday with soybeans and all 
three wheats also higher. The DTN/Progressive Farmer Digital Yield Tour, 
powered by Gro Intelligence may have played a part, estimating lower national 
yields for both corn and soybeans than USDA currently expects. 

By Todd Hultman
DTN Lead Analyst





General Comments: 

   September corn closed up 10 1/4 cents and December corn closed up 9 3/4 
cents. September soybeans closed up 9 1/4 cents and November soybeans were up 9 
cents. December KC wheat closed up 5 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 3 
cents and December Minneapolis wheat was up 3 3/4 cents. The September U.S. 
dollar index is trading down .01 at 98.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 
up 278.79 points at 25,858.18. December gold is down $6.90 at $1,524.30, 
September silver is down $0.07 at $17.14 and September copper is down $0.0040. 
September crude oil is up $0.42 at $54.89, September heating oil is up $0.0058, 
September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0244 and September natural gas is down $0.039. 
                        

   For the week: 

   September corn closed down 39 1/4 cents and December 2019 corn was down 37 
cents. September soybeans were down 11 3/4 cents and November 2019 soybeans 
were down 12 cents. December Kansas City wheat was down 24 cents, December 
Chicago wheat was down 24 cents, and December Minneapolis wheat was down 12 1/4 
cents. 

   Corn: 

   December corn closed up 9 3/4 cents at $3.80 3/4 Friday, but was down 39 1/4 
cents on the week. Monday's higher-than-expected 13.9 billion bushel (bb) crop 
estimate from USDA dominated trading for the week and it will be interesting to 
see how many noncommercial net longs were liquidated by Tuesday in Friday 
afternoon's Commitment of Traders report. The selling slowed Thursday and 
allowed for a decent gain on Friday, possibly helped by findings of 
lower-than-expected yields from the DTN/Progressive Farmer Digital Yield Tour, 
powered by Gro Intelligence. After finding corn and soybean yields much lower 
than USDA estimates in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio late Thursday, December corn 
traded higher Friday morning. Later Friday morning, the tour released national 
yield estimates of 163.2 bushels per acre (bpa) for corn and 44.2 bpa for 
soybeans. If accurate, the tour estimate points to a roughly 13.4 billion 
bushel (bb) corn crop and U.S. ending stocks of 1.8 bb in 2019-20. Technically, 
the trend in cash corn remains down, the victim of this week's noncommercial 
selling. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $4.02 Thursday, 9 cents below the 
September contract. Generally speaking, investor concerns appear to have 
relaxed Friday with the Dow Jones Industrials trading up 279 points and other 
commodities mixed. 

   Soybeans: 

   November soybeans closed up 9 cents at $8.79 3/4, but were down 12 cents on 
the week. USDA's lower soybean crop estimate of 3.68 bb on Monday went largely 
unappreciated by a market that remains tied in knots by a steady flow of 
contradictory statements and actions concerning trade with China. On one hand, 
China said they will stop buying U.S. ag products after the U.S. announced a 
new 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods. There were also threats of 
retaliation. On the other hand, Thursday's export sales report showed 21.5 
million bushels (mb) of new-crop soybean purchases from unknown and earlier 
Friday, USDA said another 10.9 mb (296,500 metric tons) of new-crop soybeans 
were sold to unknown. China might not be the unknown sources, but the purchases 
are suspicious, to say the least. China also bought 10,200 mt of pork, leaving 
us to conclude that China will keep buying whatever they need. Thanks to this 
week's DTN/Progressive Farmer Digital Yield Tour, traders have reason to 
believe USDA's first field-based yield estimate may show another reduction in 
the soybean crop estimate. Friday morning, the tour announced a national 
soybean yield estimate of 44.2 bpa, down from USDA's August estimate of 48.5 
bpa. Lack of trade progress remains the dominant bearish force for U.S. soybean 
prices, but this year's smaller soybean crop is helping ease some of the 
bearishness. Technically, the near-term trend in cash soybeans remains down, 
but in the larger picture, cash prices are sideways between $7.12 and $8.43. 
DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.98 Thursday, 85 cents below the 
November futures contract.     

   Wheat:   

   December KC wheat closed up 5 1/4 cents at $4.09 1/2 on a day of low-volume 
trading. For the week, December KC wheat was down 24 cents, hurt by corn's big 
drop on Monday. As far as USDA's wheat estimates were concerned Monday, not 
much changed and ending world wheat stocks even dropped a small amount, but the 
prospect of cheaper U.S. corn supplies competing with wheat pressured wheat 
prices lower. In the bigger picture, December KC wheat is near its lowest 
prices in 13 years as the $4.00 level has been difficult for prices to trade 
below for very long. Adding to bearish pressures, the U.S. raised a 27% larger 
HRW wheat crop this year, said USDA. Trimming down the perennial billion 
bushels of U.S. ending wheat stocks is also proving difficult as long as the 
world's weather conditions have remained largely favorable for the major wheat 
regions. The trends for cash HRW, SRW, and HRS wheat are all down, but at these 
historically cheap levels, downside potential should be limited. DTN's National 
HRW Index closed at $3.96 Thursday, down 23 cents from the September futures 
contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.82 Thursday with support at 
$4.62.       

   Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

   Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1


(CZ)

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